Dubai, UAE – The UAE’s Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure has announced fuel price increases across all categories for July 2025, marking a significant shift from market expectations and ending three months of relative stability in petrol pricing. The increases come despite earlier predictions of potential decreases, making it essential for residents to plan their drives and budgets accordingly.
Official July 2025 Fuel Prices
Starting July 1, 2025, UAE consumers will pay higher rates for all fuel types, with diesel experiencing the steepest increase. The official pricing structure, inclusive of 5% VAT, is as follows:
| Fuel Grade | July 2025 | June 2025 | Monthly Change | % Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super 98 | AED 2.70/L | AED 2.58/L | +12 fils | +4.7% |
| Special 95 | AED 2.58/L | AED 2.47/L | +11 fils | +4.5% |
| E-Plus 91 | AED 2.51/L | AED 2.39/L | +12 fils | +5.0% |
| Diesel | AED 2.63/L | AED 2.45/L | +18 fils | +18 fils |
Fuel Price Committee’s Monthly Decision Process
The approved fuel prices by the Ministry of Energy are determined every month, according to the average global price of oil, whether up or down, after adding the operating costs of distribution companies. The UAE’s Ministry of Energy first began setting fuel prices based on average global prices in August 2015, ending the previous government subsidy system.
The announcement follows the standard schedule where prices are revealed on the last day of each month for implementation the following day, providing predictability for consumers and businesses planning their monthly expenses.
Market Surprise: Why Prices Rose Against Predictions
Oil prices fell 13% this week after 3 weeks of gains, leading many analysts to predict UAE petrol prices would follow the downward trend. However, the opposite occurred, highlighting the complex factors that influence local fuel pricing beyond immediate crude oil movements.
Key Factors Behind the Increase:
- Refinery Margin Adjustments: Summer maintenance seasons affecting regional processing capacity
- Distribution Cost Increases: Rising operational expenses for fuel distribution companies
- Currency Fluctuations: Exchange rate variations affecting import costs
- Regional Supply Chain: Middle East logistics and transportation cost adjustments
Consumer Impact: Tank Fill-Up Costs
The July increases translate to real financial impacts for UAE residents:
Cost Per 50-Liter Tank Fill-Up
| Fuel Grade | June Cost | July Cost | Monthly Increase | Annual Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super 98 | AED 129.00 | AED 135.00 | +AED 6.00 | +AED 72.00 |
| Special 95 | AED 123.50 | AED 129.00 | +AED 5.50 | +AED 66.00 |
| E-Plus 91 | AED 119.50 | AED 125.50 | +AED 6.00 | +AED 72.00 |
| Diesel | AED 122.50 | AED 131.50 | +AED 9.00 | +AED 108.00 |
*Based on monthly refueling patterns
Budget Planning Tips for Consumers
- Average Household Impact: Families with two vehicles can expect additional monthly costs of AED 11-18
- Fuel-Efficient Driving: Maintaining steady speeds and regular vehicle maintenance can offset 10-15% of increased costs
- Alternative Transport: Consider contributing to zero-emission transportation options for routine commuting
Historical Perspective: Still Below 2024 Levels
Despite July’s increases, UAE fuel prices remain significantly lower than previous year levels:
| Comparison Period | Super 98 | Annual Savings | Consumer Benefit |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | AED 2.70/L | – | Current Price |
| July 2024 | AED 2.99/L | 29 fils/L | 9.7% Lower |
| Peak 2024 (May) | AED 3.34/L | 64 fils/L | 19.2% Lower |
This long-term comparison provides context that while July represents a monthly increase, consumers continue to benefit from substantial year-over-year savings.
2025 Price Volatility Analysis
The latest fuel prices in UAE show 6 months of historical data, including monthly trends and price changes:
Monthly Price Movements (Super 98)
- January 2025: AED 2.61/L (baseline)
- February 2025: AED 2.74/L (+13 fils – peak)
- March 2025: AED 2.73/L (-1 fils – stability)
- April 2025: AED 2.57/L (-16 fils – lowest point)
- May 2025: AED 2.58/L (+1 fils – recovery)
- June 2025: AED 2.58/L (unchanged – stability)
- July 2025: AED 2.70/L (+12 fils – current increase)
Price Volatility Metrics:
- 2025 Range: 17 fils difference (high-low)
- Average Price: AED 2.64/L
- Volatility Index: Moderate (6.6% range variation)
Business Sector Impact Analysis
Transportation and Logistics
Diesel prices have changed significantly, affecting commercial operations. The 18 fils increase represents the highest cost pressure for:
- Freight Companies: Increased operational costs requiring rate adjustments
- Delivery Services: Higher last-mile delivery expenses
- Construction Sector: Heavy machinery and transportation cost increases
- Public Transportation: Bus operators face margin pressure
SME Impact Assessment
Small and medium enterprises with vehicle fleets must factor fuel cost increases into their pricing strategies. Service-based businesses with mobile operations face immediate margin compression requiring operational efficiency improvements.
Regional Market Positioning
The UAE’s July 2025 rates maintain competitive positioning within the GCC:
| Country | Premium Petrol | Diesel | Market Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | AED 2.70/L | AED 2.63/L | Moderate |
| Saudi Arabia | AED 2.45/L | AED 2.40/L | Lower (subsidized) |
| Qatar | AED 2.80/L | AED 2.75/L | Higher |
| Kuwait | AED 2.35/L | AED 2.30/L | Lower (subsidized) |
| Oman | AED 2.90/L | AED 2.85/L | Higher |
Expert Analysis and Market Outlook
Short-Term Forecast (August 2025)
- Probability Assessment: 60% chance of slight decrease based on seasonal demand patterns
- Key Variables: Global crude price stabilization and refinery maintenance completion
- Price Range Estimate: AED 2.60-2.75/L for Super 98
Long-Term Trends (Q3-Q4 2025)
- Q3 Outlook: Continued volatility due to summer demand and maintenance schedules
- Q4 Projection: Potential stabilization as winter demand patterns emerge
- Annual Average: Expected to remain below 2024 levels despite monthly fluctuations
Money-Saving Tips for UAE Residents
Immediate Cost Management
- Fuel-Efficient Driving: Maintain speeds between 80-100 km/h for optimal efficiency
- Vehicle Maintenance: Regular tune-ups can improve fuel economy by 10-15%
- Trip Planning: Combine errands to reduce total driving distance
- Off-Peak Refueling: Consider filling up during less busy hours for quicker service
Long-Term Strategies
- Vehicle Selection: Consider fuel-efficient or hybrid vehicles for future purchases
- Public Transport: Utilize Dubai Metro and bus networks for regular commuting
- Carpooling: Share rides for work commutes and school runs
- Fuel Apps: Use mobile apps to track consumption and find nearby stations
Government Policy Context
All prices include the five percent VAT, which remains unchanged. The deregulation policy implemented since August 2015 ensures transparency while allowing market forces to determine pricing based on global benchmarks.
The monthly review system provides balance between market responsiveness and price stability, protecting consumers from daily crude oil volatility while ensuring prices reflect long-term global trends.
What to Watch in August 2025
Key Indicators
- Global Crude Prices: Brent crude movements following recent 13% weekly decline
- OPEC+ Decisions: Production quota adjustments affecting global supply
- Regional Factors: Middle East political stability and supply chain efficiency
- Economic Indicators: UAE economic growth and fuel demand patterns
Consumer Preparation
- Budget Adjustments: Factor 3-5% monthly fuel cost variations into household budgets
- Vehicle Efficiency: Consider fuel economy as primary factor in vehicle purchasing decisions
- Alternative Planning: Explore public transport options for routine travel
The July 2025 fuel price increases represent a return to market-driven adjustments following months of stability. While presenting immediate cost challenges, the pricing mechanism ensures UAE consumers benefit from global market improvements while maintaining energy security and supply reliability.
For latest updates: Check reliable government updates and monthly trends through official Ministry of Energy channels and established news sources for the most current fuel pricing information.
